View 2021 NFL futures odds for season-long Over/Under Wins from the top sportsbooks in the US. Easily see which sportsbook offers the best odds for NFL futures bets. Teams are listed with their listed 2020 win total, per BetMGM, along with their under/over odds, listed in that order. For example, the Cardinals are currently listed at 6.5 (+135/-164), meaning a.
The 2020 NFL season is underway and football bettors have been zeroing in on teams’ win totals. Over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets do have an added layer of risk attached this season due to the fact that there have been no pre-season games. With that said, there will undoubtedly be action throughout the coming months on these types of wagers. As such, let’s delve into some of the fundamentals of 2020 win totals bets, beginning with a look at the current totals at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
ALSO READ: NFL Week 1 Lines At DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL win totals 2020
Check back to this page for more win totals as they are released by sportsbooks.
How to bet win totals
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the amount of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet for an example.
Let’s suppose the Miami Dolphins are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2020 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on Miami falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Dolphins finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in Miami taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within an online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some, such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, wait until the dust settles on important events such as free agency and the draft before rolling out their projected totals. Others, such as FOX Bet, made an initial selection of projected win totals available in early February.
Strategy for betting win totals
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Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Miami Dolphins’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins is set at -110, while odds on over 6.5 wins is set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. Say a bettor is considering placing a win totals bet on the New England Patriotsfor the 2020 season at this stage of the offseason. The total for the Patriots opened at 9.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure in the pre-free-agency-portion of the offseason.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro and head to Tampa Bay and the subsequent signing of former NFL MVP Cam Newton, the Patriots’ win total has been in flux all summer.
In that example, the recency bias engendered by the Pats’ long stretch of success easily coaxed a bettor to assume that another 10-win season at minimum was about as automatic as it gets. However, in this case, not accounting for current circumstances would have cost that bettor money.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the Patriots’ 2020 win total could ultimately prove to be a textbook example over time. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.
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NFL Win Totals are one of the most popular future wagers and the odds for the upcoming 2020 regular season have been posted for all 32 teams.
The 2019 NFL campaign saw 10 teams post double-digit victories and six of those teams posted 12 wins while another four had 13 victories or more.
The two highest NFL win totals come from the AFC as the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are listed at 11.5 victories for the 2020 season. The Chiefs are coming off a 12-4 season in spite of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes missing two games due to injury.
Right next to Kansas City is the Baltimore Ravens, who won a league-best 14 games in 2019. The Ravens are currently listed at 11.5 wins for 2020 as Baltimore last won at least 11 games in back-to-back seasons in 2010 and 2011.
2020 NFL Contenders to Watch
(Based on 2020 Win Totals Odds)- Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
- Baltimore Ravens 11.5
- San Francisco 49ers 10.5
- New Orleans Saints 10.5
- Dallas Cowboys 10
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.5
- Seattle Seahawks 9.5
- Indianapolis Colts 9.5
- Philadelphia Eagles 9.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5
NFL Win Totals
Listed below are the 2020 NFL Win Totals in both Ascending and Alphabetical order.
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Where to Bet 2020 NFL Win Totals
| Sportsbook | Online Sportsbook | Sportsbook Welcome Offers | Claim Welcome Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|
Visit Review | FanDuel | Risk-Free Bet up to $500 T&C’s Apply, 21+, Only in IN, NJ, PA, CO, WV | |
Visit Review | DraftKings | Get a Sign Up Bonus up to $1000 T&C’s Apply, 21+, Only in IN, NJ, PA WV |
Largest Improvement to Largest Drop-Off
Expectations have jumped for a handful of teams in the NFL from a win total perspective. The largest leap is the Detroit Lions, who finished with a disappointing 3-12-1 record in 2019 as their win total is 6.5 this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have elevated expectations after Tom Brady signed with them in free agency as the Bucs have a win total of 9.5 following a 7-9 campaign.
The three teams that see a significant drop in their win total from last season compared to their 2019 record are all division champions. The Green Bay Packers posted a solid 13-3 record in 2019, but their 2020 NFL win total sits at only 9 for the upcoming campaign. The Ravens, as mentioned above, own a win total of 11.5, which is three fewer wins than the 14 they mustered last season, which was the best regular season in franchise history. The NFC champion San Francisco 49ers enter the season with a 10.5 win total after putting up 13 victories this past season.
Toughest and Weakest Divisions
The toughest division from a win total standpoint is the NFC West, in which the four teams have a combined 35.5 win total.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Seattle Seahawks 9.5
Los Angeles Rams 8.5
Arizona Cardinals 7.5
The weakest division is the AFC South, as the highest win total sits with the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans sitting at 9.5 at 8.5 wins respectively, while the Jacksonville Jaguars own one of the lowest win totals in the league at 4.5 victories.
Nfl Season Over Under Win Totals
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.5
Tennessee Titans 8.5
Houston Texans 7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5
2020 Win Totals - Trends to Watch
Updated Sun, Sept. 6, 5:15 PM ET - Consensus Odds Provided by VI - Subject to Change